Bryony Puxley - October 7

Bryony Puxley A Climatology of Drought and Pluvial Transitions across the Southern Great Plains Location: Google Meet: https://meet.google.com/ssf-prpz-fqa Date:     2020/10/07 Time:     03:00 PM Series:   Weather and Climate Systems Abstract: The Southern Great Plains is a region of significant population growth over the past few decades and is a region that is

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October 7, 2020 - 3:00 pm

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October 7, 2020 - 3:00 pm

Bryony Puxley

A Climatology of Drought and Pluvial Transitions across the Southern Great Plains

Location: Google Meet: https://meet.google.com/ssf-prpz-fqa

Date:     2020/10/07

Time:     03:00 PM

Series:   Weather and Climate Systems

Abstract: The Southern Great Plains is a region of significant population growth over the past few decades and is a region that is heavily utilized for agriculture. The Southern Great Plains is also prone to rapid transitions in precipitation extremes that produce weather whiplashes (a rapid change from drought conditions to pluvial conditions and vice-versa) which can directly impact infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and water quantity. This rapid change from one precipitation extreme to another can result in cascading impacts across a region. For example, during periods of excessive rainfall vegetation can flourish which poses a fire risk if the region rapidly transitions to drought, as the increased vegetation increases the fuel availability for wildfires. In the opposite sense, excessive rainfall which is preceded by drought conditions can significantly increase the chance of flash flooding in a region. This study utilized the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independe
nt Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation dataset from 1981 to 2018, to create a climatology of precipitation whiplashes across the Southern Great Plains on a subseasonal scale. Due to the non-normality of the distribution of precipitation a percentile method was used to define drought and pluvial conditions on the monthly scale. All years between 1981 and 2018 show a precipitation whiplash somewhere within the Southern Great Plains, with the Fall months of September and October being the most common. This suggests that the secondary peak in precipitation that occurs in the Fall is important in regards to precipitation whiplashes across the Southern Great Plains. An insight into the climatology of these precipitation whiplashes on a subseasonal scale will greatly enhance the understanding of these events allowing for better predictability and preparedness into the future.