Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios from NCAR

National Weather Center Colloquium

Dr. Rosimar Rios- Berrios

Subseasonal and Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Global Convection-Permitting Simulations

April 16, 2024

3:00 pm

NWC 1313

Zoom link: https://tinyurl.com/nwccolloquium

Despite the powerful and devastating effects of tropical cyclones, many questions remain unanswered about these phenomena. For example, what are the precise mechanisms that allow tropical cyclones to form in clusters within a given hurricane season? Furthermore, should we expect more and/or more powerful tropical cyclones in light of our warming oceans? In this talk, I will address some of these questions using novel idealized numerical experiments with a global model. The experiments—known as aquaplanet simulations— capture the convective dynamics of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena by means of employing convectionpermitting resolution in the tropics. These experiments reveal an uptick in tropical cyclogenesis events after the rainfall peak of convectively coupled Kelvin waves. While this result has been previously documented, the aquaplanet experiments shed new light on the physical mechanisms that explain the uptick in tropical cyclogenesis. I will discuss these results together with a preliminary overview of tropical cyclone activity in experiments with varying ocean temperatures