Dylan Reif-April 13

An investigation of initiation mechanisms of nocturnal convection using WRF

Nocturnal convection initiation (CI) remains one of the major forecasting challenges and is due in part to our lack of understanding and lack of observations above the nocturnal stable boundary layer. Even though it is challenging to forecast convection initiation, favorable areas for CI to occur in may be identified because of our better understanding of features such as the low-level jet. While the low-level jet is an important initiation mechanism for some nocturnal CI events, it is not always a contributing factor. Other features such as quasi-geostrophic-aided ascent, gravity waves, and potential vorticity anomalies may act to initiate convection. Those features are harder to observe as they exist above the stable boundary layer and the spatiotemporal resolution of the observational network is too coarse. This study attempts to create an idealized nocturnal Great Plains environment using the WRF model to see how these features act to aid the initiation of nocturnal convection. Hypotheses for how these features support initiation and the current model setup will be presented.