Melanie Schroers - October 27

Weather and Climate Systems

Informed Science from a Subseasonal Perspective: Initial Lessons Learned from PRES2iP Workshop 2

Melanie Schroers

Wednesday, October 27

3:00 PM

Join Google Meet:

https://meet.google.com/joz-jnzu-cgr

Prediction of climate extremes at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale has become a large topic of conversation between researchers and stakeholders. Fourteen-day S2S precipitation events have led to devastating impacts in agriculture, transportation, infrastructure, water management and more. Through collaboration with researchers on the Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods project (PRES2iP) and stakeholders at a two-day workshop in 2018, we learned longer lead times would help with planning for extreme precipitation events. Yet, forecasting at this time scale lacks predictive skill compared to typical weather forecasts (1-10 days) or seasonal forecasts (3+ months). In order to continue to create informed science, a second workshop was held in October 2021. This workshop brought together PRES2iP researchers, and 19 stakeholders located throughout the CONUS. During this workshop, group discussions and other activities provided insight into how stakeholders may use the S2S timescale for extreme precipitation events. The PRES2iP team learned how stakeholders assess forecast confidence, how they interpret specific terminology used by researchers, and how familiar they are with the S2S time scale.