Tropopause-penetrating convection is capable of rapidly transporting air from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Since the vertical redistribution of gases in the atmosphere by convection can have important impacts on the chemistry of the UTLS, the radiative budget, and climate, it has become a recent focus of observational and modeling studies.
Abstract: A Geometric View of the Ins and Outs of Simulation-based Forecasting Leonard A Smith Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, LSE Pembroke College, Oxford. Since the 1950's weather forecasting (on every timescale) has been challenged by the nonlinearity of our models and the limits of our computational power.
Even though the observed amplified warming trend in the Arctic region is well-established in theory through climate feedbacks and reproduced in global climate model projections, the same global climate models underestimate the corresponding decline in Arctic sea ice extent. Even some of the most sophisticated global climate models do not reproduce the observed characteristics or trends in present day Arctic cyclones.
Using Machine Learning Applications and HREFv2 to Enhance Hail Prediction for Operations Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Amanda Burke April 12, 2019 3:00 pm/ NWC 5600 Abstract: Severe hail results in, on average, more than a billion dollars of damage within the continental United States each year. Thus, timely and accurate operational hail forecasts are vital […]
Abstract: The tropopause separates the well-mixed troposphere, which is greatly impacted by day-to-day variations in the weather (cyclones, fronts, convection, breaking waves, etc.), from the stable layered stratosphere, which is often slow to change and retains much of its characteristics for long time periods (months to years).
Quantifying Precipitation Efficiency and the Drivers of Excessive Precipitation in Post-Landfall Hurricane Harvey Weather and Climate Systems Noah Brauer April 10, 2019 3:00pm/ NWC 5600 Abstract: Hurricane Harvey produced widespread rainfall amounts over 100 cm to portions of Southeast Texas, including Houston from 26-31 August 2017. The highly efficient and prolonged warm rain processes associated […]