Abstract: In the southern great plains, winter weather can have large impacts due to heavy icing and inadequate mitigation resources. The boundary between cold arctic air from the north and warm gulf moisture to the south is a consistent forecasting challenge for models even in the short-term.
The social and economic impacts of hurricanes in the U.S. in the last few years stressed the necessity to better understand the variability, predictability and risk of tropical cyclones. In this talk, I will discuss the current understanding of various aspects of tropical cyclones, from the ability of the current generation of models to make forecasts on sub-seasonal time-scales, to the estimates of hurricane risk in locations with very few occurrences in the historical record.
Abstract: A uniform spatial localization for all scales is commonly applied in the ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems to treat sampling errors. Early studies suggest that the optimal effective localization length for the large scale is broader than that for the small scale.
With NEXRAD now approaching the 30-year mark since its installation, intense study has been underway on designing a replacement national weather radar system. One system design framework—a multifunction phased array radar (MPAR) system—is designed to meet the needs of several end users simultaneously, including NOAA, FAA, DoD, and DHS. More recently, a weather-only radar system with update times on the order of one minute has been investigated.
Recent Advances and Applications of Utilizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Atmospheric Research Boundary Layer, Urban Meteorology, and Land-Surface Processes Brian Greene April 19, 2019 2:00pm/ NWC 5600 Abstract: In recent years, the commercial accessibility of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and miniaturized sensor payloads have increased significantly, making it feasible to sample and characterize the planetary […]
Tropopause-penetrating convection is capable of rapidly transporting air from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Since the vertical redistribution of gases in the atmosphere by convection can have important impacts on the chemistry of the UTLS, the radiative budget, and climate, it has become a recent focus of observational and modeling studies.
Abstract: A Geometric View of the Ins and Outs of Simulation-based Forecasting Leonard A Smith Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, LSE Pembroke College, Oxford. Since the 1950's weather forecasting (on every timescale) has been challenged by the nonlinearity of our models and the limits of our computational power.
Even though the observed amplified warming trend in the Arctic region is well-established in theory through climate feedbacks and reproduced in global climate model projections, the same global climate models underestimate the corresponding decline in Arctic sea ice extent. Even some of the most sophisticated global climate models do not reproduce the observed characteristics or trends in present day Arctic cyclones.
