Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics)

On the Predictability of Atmospheric Bores during IHOP_2002

Kevin Haghi

School Of Meteorology

06 May 2016, 3:00 PM

National Weather Center, Room 5600
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK

Previously, a systematic study using data collected during the International H20 Project (IHOP_2002) investigated atmospheric bores and convectively-generated boundaries. These results argued that atmospheric bores are a dominant phenomena within the nocturnal environment. Theoretical parameters, the Froude # and the non-dimensional height, also support the observed occurrence of bores Given an appreciable surface inversion and a nocturnal low-level jet, the signal in the probability density function for “developing a bore from a density current” contracts toward a partially blocked mode with bores generated as you approach 9UTC. Yet, many of the conditions that are favorable for bores (a nocturnal low-level jet, a present surface inversion) are also present with nocturnal convection. This current work uses an artificial neural network algorithm to test 10 parameters populated from 5 special soundings locations launched at 3-hourly intervals during IHOP_2002. The algorithm predicts whether: 1) convection will or will not occur and 2) if a bore will or will not develop from the predicted convection. Additionally, this study will focus on how the predictability of developing a bore at 9Z is maximized versus other times during the night. These findings suggest that there is promising predictive skill in distinguishing between environments that generate convection and a bore and those that generate convection and no bore, maximized from atmospheric soundings at 9UTC.

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar Series website