Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics)

Short-term Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts using a Prototype
Warn-on-Forecast System

Nusrat Yussouf

Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK

09 December 2016, 3:00 PM

National Weather Center, Room 5600
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is actively developing prototype Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) systems with the goal to incorporate NWP model based forecast guidance in National Weather Service (NWS) severe weather warning decision process. The WoF system is a continuous rapid-update-cycle storm-scale ensemble data assimilation and forecast system that assimilates radar, satellite, and conventional NWS observations of ongoing convections into the model and launches very short-term ensemble forecasts frequently. It is envisioned that a WoF system would provide increased warning lead times for high-impact weather (i.e. tornadoes, heavy rain, large hails and damaging winds) in support of critical NOAA strategic mission goals designed to reduce the loss of life, injury, and economic costs from hazardous weather. Another likely outcome is the use of ensemble precipitation forecasts from the WoF system to drive high-resolution distributed hydrologic models to produce explicit probabilistic flash-flood forecasts.

This presentation will demonstrate the capability of a prototype WoF system in predicting thunderstorm tracks with its rotational characteristics and extreme rainfall from several retrospective record-breaking high-impact weather events. To evaluate how the frequent-update-cycle storm-scale ensemble system performs in predicting these events, both qualitative and quantitative verification metrics will be used.

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar Series website