School of Meteorology (Defense)

Coupling the Advanced Regional Prediction System and the Discrete Event Specification Fire Spread Model to Predict Wildfire Behavior

Nathan Dahl
OU School of Meteorology

01 May 2014, 9:00 AM

National Weather Center, Room 4140
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK

The cost of wildfire suppression in the United States has risen dramatically over the last 20 years. As the interface between wildland and urban areas expands, increased emphasis is being placed on rapid, efficient deployment of firefighting resources. Various numerical models of wildfire spread have been developed to assist wildfire management efforts over the last several decades; however, the use of coupled fire-weather models to capture important feedbacks between the wildfire and the atmosphere is a relatively new development. This research evaluates a coupled system consisting of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) atmospheric model and the Discrete Event Specification Fire Spread model (DEVS-FIRE). After the theoretical basis is outlined, the results of idealized tests, verification using data from the FIREFLUX experiment, and case studies of the September 2000 Moore Branch Fire and the April 2011 Rock House Fire will be presented. The results demonstrate the importance of coupled fire-atmosphere modeling while highlighting difficulties encountered when using the current version of the coupled model.

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School of Meteorology (Defense) Seminar Series website