School of Meteorology (Defense)

Improved Characterization of Errors within the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System through utilization of Concordiasi Dropsondes

James Russell
OU School of Meteorology

13 November 2014, 2:00 PM

National Weather Center, Room 5820
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is currently the only real-time, limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a domain over the Antarctic region. This study presents an overall evaluation of AMPS by comparing its forecast soundings against dropsonde observations obtained in the Concordiasi field program. Concordiasi dropsonde profiles provide a much improved spacial coverage over the region where in past evaluations, observations are provided by only a limited number of stations. We find that biases are primarily limited to the boundary layer, with warm, dry, and slow low-level forecast biases over the continent. In addition, weak and shallow temperature and dew point inversions, and slow low-level jets are forecast in AMPS. Over the sea ice surrounding the continent, there is a warm and dry bias, which is connected to a known bias of low cloud fraction over Antarctica within NWP models. Furthermore, deep temperature and dew point inversions are forecast in AMPS at early lead times which is linked to the lack of observations to correct the initial conditions provided by the NCEP's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS).

We also present a comparison of AMPS to the Global Forecast System and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We conclude that AMPS forecasts improve upon the other models in forecasts of low-level atmospheric features over the continent, in particular over the high plateau region of Antarctica.

For accommodations based on disability, or more details, please call 325-6561. All visitors without NOAA or University of Oklahoma identification must register at the registration desk on arrival. Visitor parking is available for all University visitors. However, faculty/staff/students must have a current multi-purpose parking permit. Additional parking is available at the Lloyd Noble Center (LNC) for those individuals who do not have a parking permit. You do not need a permit to park in one of 1,200 spaces reserved for CART bus riders, although you must ride the CART shuttle to park in the reserved area. This area is on the north central side of the Lloyd Noble Center. Elsewhere at the LNC, permits are required.

School of Meteorology (Defense) Seminar Series website