Title: A mechanism for extraordinary wind gusts in tropical cyclones Abstract: Some extreme values of gust factor have been measured within the eyewalls of tropical cyclones, where gust factor is defined as the ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed. In the famous case of Cyclone Olivia in Australia in 1996, a […]
Data assimilation (DA) for NWP combines a short forecast (“prior”) with current observations to create an analysis, which serves several purposes: accurate initial conditions for long forecasts, boundary conditions for limited area models, input into real-time tactical decision aids, and the initial conditions for the short forecasts that become the prior for the next DA cycle. Observation and forecast error statistics, represented by error covariance matrices, control how much information is drawn from the observations as well as how that information is spread to observation sparse locations. Improving the models of these covariance matrices is the subject of much current work.