Initiation mechanisms of nocturnal convection initiation without nearby surface boundaries Nocturnal convection is common over the central and southern Great Plains during the warm season. Much of this has been attributed to eastward propagating systems, but there are systems that initiate at night over the Plains. Three location-based CI modes were identified in a […]
African Easterly Wave Tracks as Simulated by CMIP5 Models African Easterly Waves (AEWs) impact Sahel rainfall and serve as a trigger disturbance for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Currently, there is no agreement regarding the projected TC trends for the future. So far, there has been very little investigation into the changes […]
On TPV thinking; Impacts on Arctic sea ice Arctic sea ice exhibits considerable year to year variability, likely amplifying over the next decades as the ice thins. Problematically, larger year to year sea ice anomalies exhibit larger forecast errors. What processes drive the evolution and prediction of summer sea ice? Cyclonic tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) […]
The Rossby Wave Roadmap and Implications on Medium-Range Predictability Despite decades of improvements in the performance of NWP, there are still times when forecast models experience errors that are drastically greater than the mean. These periods of poor performance are referred to as dropouts, or busts, and are characterized by a verifying atmosphere that is […]
The prediction of a particular feature called a Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV) has downstream implications on larger-scale atmospheric evolution and forecast skill. The TPV is a feature found in the Arctic that can persist for many days before ultimately exerting a major impact on weather forecasts over North America.