May 7, 2021 - 3:00 pm
May 7, 2021 - 4:00 pm
CategoriesConvective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics)
Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar
A Statistical Approach to Diagnosing Storm Mode (Linear vs Isolated) Using Synoptic Scale Variables
Friday, May 7th
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Determining storm mode (linear or isolated) is a crucial component of any severe weather forecast. Isolated storms are more likely to produce strong to violent long-track tornadoes and very large hail, while linear storms are more likely to produce straight-line wind damage. Current operational Convection Allowing Models (CAMs), which are used to diagnose storm mode, only run up to 48 hours in the future (60 hours in the case of the 3-km North American Model, NAM). To improve forecast accuracy and messaging on Day 3+ outlooks, a forecast tool was created to predict storm mode using only synoptic-scale variables. The approach uses a blend of theoretical modeling, stochastic modeling, and statistical modeling. The formulation generally performed well with reproducing past events and predicting future events 84+ hours in advance.