Matt Flournoy-Feb 15

The sensitivity of tornadogenesis to (a) the background synoptic environment, (b) the storm-influenced mesoscale environment, and (c) chaotic intra-storm processes remains an active area of research. In a recent set of ensemble simulations using the near-field tornadic and non-tornadic composite soundings from the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2), Coffer et al. (2017) found that all storms initialized in the near-field tornadic environment produced a tornado, while 40% of the storms initialized in the near-field non-tornadic environment produced a tornado. In this study, a similar ensemble of supercell simulations was created using the far-field tornadic composite sounding from VORTEX2. This far-field ensemble shows larger variability in terms of tornado production than the near-field ensemble, with some members not producing a tornado, some producing a single tornado, and others producing cycling tornadoes. In all, 93% of storms initialized in the near-field tornadic environment produced a tornado, and 20% of storms initialized in the far-field tornadic environment produced a tornado. The far-field tornadic ensemble of supercells produced less tornadoes than the near-field nontornadic ensemble of supercells from Coffer et al. (2017). Storm-scale features are assessed to diagnose reasons for tornadogenesis success and failure in the near- and far-field simulations and if these modes may be related to the background environment and/or the storm-influenced mesoscale environment.