Using data from the 6 July 2015 PECAN mission, this study examines how the assimilation of novel boundary layer (BL) profilers affects the forecasts of a bore-initiated convection event. To account for the multi-scale nature of the phenomenon, data impacts are discussed separately with respect to the (i) bore environment, (ii) explicitly resolved bore and (iii) bore-initiated convection.
Numerical weather prediction models often fail to correctly forecast convection initiation (CI) at night in the Great Plains. To improve our understanding of such events, researchers collected unique observations from thermodynamic and kinematic profilers as part of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. The assimilation of these observations can aid in analyses of key features that are not easily observed by conventional datasets This talk presents forecasts of a nocturnal CI event from PECAN in which assimilating the PECAN dataset improves the timing, location, and orientation of CI.
TBD NWC 5600
In recent years, increased attention has turned to studying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) as advanced instruments have become more affordable. Commercial availability of scanning Doppler lidars and the recent widespread availability of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAS) has opened up a world of opportunity to observe and study the complex processes that occur in the PBL. These two paradigms (remote sensing and UAS), have the potential to revolutionize boundary layer observations.
TBA
In the United States and throughout the world, extreme precipitation events are a major cause of loss in life, property, and economic progress. Although the science of hydrometeorology has made significant improvements to the prediction and understanding of these events in recent decades, there is still much to learn about these events in the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale.
TBD
Day-ahead (20 - 22 hour) 3-km grid spacing convection-allowing model forecasts are performed for a severe hail event on 8 May 2017 using six different multi-moment microphysics (MP) schemes including: the Milbrandt and Yau double-moment (MY2), Thompson (THO), NSSL double-moment (NSSL), Morrison double-moment graupel (MOR-G) and hail (MOR-H), and Predicted Particle Properties (P3) schemes.
