Start
July 20, 2020 - 1:00 pm
End
July 20, 2020 - 2:00 pm
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Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics)Colorful Language: Investigating the Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook
Sean Ernst
Monday, July 20th
01:00 PM Central Time (US and Canada)
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Though severe weather forecast products, such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, have shown impressive rates of accuracy at long-range time scales, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms still claim dozens of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage every year. While the accuracy of this outlook has been well documented, less work has been done to explore the value of the product for its users, particularly for broadcast meteorologists and the general public. This study seeks to fill this key knowledge gap by interviewing a set of broadcasters from regions affected by severe convective weather, as well as collecting data from a representative survey of U.S. adults in the lower 48 states, about their use and interpretation of the SPC convective outlook. Data from broadcasters, collected through a combination of Cognitive Task Analyses and focus group interviews, are analyzed through thematic coding schemes, while survey data is processed through statistical tests and into visualizations. Results suggest that both broadcasters and the public take issue with the words that define each level of risk in the outlook, though overall the outlook is considered a valuable product that has a meaningful impact on users’ decisions.
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