Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics)

Name:     Montgomery Flora Title:    Using machine learning to improve probabilistic forecasts of severe weather in the Warn-on-Forecast System Location: NWC 5600 Date:     2020/03/13 Time:     3:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: A goal of the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast project is to provide rapidly-updating probabilistic guidance to human forecasters for short-term (e.g., 0-3 h) severe weather forecasts.  An […]

Name:     Amanda Burke Title:    Improving Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasts through Monthly Weighting Location: NWC 5600 Date:     2020/03/6 Time:     3:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: Forecasting severe hail using machine learning (ML) models during the spring and summer season over the contiguous United States (CONUS) has shown improved skill compared to traditional techniques. However, […]

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Verification of the Tornado and Lightning Plumes and developing a new Plume Kernel Ian Gesell Friday, February 28th 3:00pm/NWC 5600   Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a proposed framework that will modify the current watch and warning system to communicate […]

Name:     Aaron Johnson Title:    What is the optimal configuration of convection-permitting ensemble forecasts? Location: NWC 5600 Date:     2020/02/14 Time:     03:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: Choosing a configuration of a convection-permitting ensemble forecast system that optimally samples the relevant sources of forecast uncertainty in order to provide skillful probabilistic forecasts is a non-trivial task.  Such […]

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar   A Comparative Convective Study between the Local Particle Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System   Joel McAuliffe Friday, December 6th 3:00pm/NWC 5600   The local particle filter (LPF; Poterjoy 2016, Poterjoy et al. 2019) is a recent development in geophysical data assimilation. Like standard […]

Name:     Jeff Milne Title:    Further exploring the vertical structure of updraft helicity Location: NWC 5600 Date:     2019/11/22 Time:     3:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: Updraft helicity (UH) is a commonly used diagnostic output from convection-allowing models (CAMs) for forecasting severe convective weather. It is calculated by taking the vertical integral of the product of […]

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar   Multi-Radar Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell through Tornadogenesis and Intensification   Clarice Dyson Friday, October 25th 3:00 pm/NWC 5600   On the 20 May 2013, a violent, long-track EF-5 tornado impacted Moore, Oklahoma and surrounding areas, occurring within a network of radars operating in close […]

Name:     Kelsey Britt Title:    Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WOFS) Location: NWC 5600 Date:     2019/10/18 Time:     3:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: Cyclic mesocyclogenesis is the process by which a supercell produces multiple mesocyclones with similar life cycles, which have the potential […]

Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Seminar Improving High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Prediction using a Cycled, GSI-Based Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF with Vortex Scale Observations   Xu Lu Friday, September 27th NWC 5600/3:00pm   A GSI-based, continuously cycled, dual-resolution hybrid EnKF-Var DA system is developed for the HWRF Model.  The newly developed DA system is […]

Name:     Yongjie Huang Title:    What caused the maximum daily rainfall of 524.1 mm and hourly rainfall of 184.4 mm during a severe local storm? Location: NWC 1350 Date:     2019/09/12 Time:     03:00 PM Series:   Convective Meteorology (Mesoscale Dynamics) Abstract: During May 6-7, 2017, an extreme rainfall occurred in the coastal metropolitan city of Guangzhou, southern China. A […]