Nick Szapiro-February 22
On TPV thinking; Impacts on Arctic sea ice Arctic sea ice exhibits considerable year to year variability, likely amplifying over the next decades as the ice thins. Problematically, larger year to year sea ice anomalies exhibit larger forecast errors. What processes drive the evolution and prediction of summer sea ice? Cyclonic tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) […]
Sam Lillo-February 15
The Rossby Wave Roadmap and Implications on Medium-Range Predictability Despite decades of improvements in the performance of NWP, there are still times when forecast models experience errors that are drastically greater than the mean. These periods of poor performance are referred to as dropouts, or busts, and are characterized by a verifying atmosphere that is […]
Investigating the Downstream Impacts of TPVs on Predictability Using MPAS/MPAS-DART
The prediction of a particular feature called a Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV) has downstream implications on larger-scale atmospheric evolution and forecast skill. The TPV is a feature found in the Arctic that can persist for many days before ultimately exerting a major impact on weather forecasts over North America.